Russia is predicted to be a global energy leader
June 1, 2017
Experts said that in 15 years the largest energy resources producer will be the United States, 50 years later – Russia, and 100 years later – China.
In 50 years, Russia will become the world’s largest supplier of energy resources, and 100 years later this role will move to China. This fact is discussed in the research of founders of the Global Energy Prize where more than 50 scientists from different countries took part. According to their calculations, Russia will supply not only oil and gas around the world, but also will develop extensively new technologies, in particular, on alternative energy – the sun, wind and water. Experts interviewed by Izvestiya are confident that Russia’s entry into the first place among energy producers is realistic due to huge gas reserves in the country and the increase in hydrocarbon supplies to Asia. Global Energy Prize is presented to the world’s greatest scientists by Russian President Vladimir Putin at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
To prepare the research (its text is available to Izvestiya) were involved all the laureates of the Global Energy Prize: 35 scientists from 11 countries, and members of the Global Energy Prize International Award Committee – it includes 20 well-known scientists from 13 countries under the leadership of the laureate of the Nobel Peace Prize, British Rodney Allam. Moreover, a lot of requests were sent to a number of energy experts from around the world.
According to experts, in 15 years the largest energy resources producer will be the United States, 50 years later – Russia, and 100 years later – China. To some extent it reflects the current situation – the USA and Russia have always been major energy exporters, and China is extensively building new energy generation capacities that will be actively put into operation by 2030-2035, the research says.
–The report is based on findings of a three-year research. Its basis is foresight sessions with the scientists, analysis of work of the prize platform performance, as well as assessment of leading experts in the field of global energy, - told Izvestiya the President of Global Energy Association Igor Lobovsky.
Among prerequisites of Russia’s entry into the first place, the scientists primarily mention emerge of new technologies that will be cheaper and more energy-efficient than existing ones.
China will take the lead in 100 years, because in future human resources will play the main role: development of new technologies will most probably be carried out everywhere, and technological race in this area must end – new technologies will be available to everyone, the research says.
The only area where the United States can make a breakthrough in the next 10 years is in supplies of the liquefied natural gas (LNG), as this direction is actively developing in the USA, said Anna Kokoreva, deputy director of the Alpari analytical department.
– By 2020, the country plans to increase LNG exports from 15 billion cubic meters to 120 billion cubic meters and become the world's third largest exporter of LNG. Essential advantage of the States lies in their geographical location – access to large water and the ability to supply in any direction, – the analyst said.
Therefore, in the next 15 years, the USA can become a world leader in the supply of LNG, the export of other energy resources, in particular, oil will require the US government to make series of reforms and changes, the prospects of which are not yet fully understood, – considers Anna Kokoreva.
– There is no doubt in the leadership of Russia. Even today, Russia is the leader of conventional gas in the European market, the world's largest supplier of oil and refined products. Also, the country is actively working in the Asian direction, – the analyst said.
In the LNG market, our country is seriously losing, because our LNG is competitive mainly in supplying to Japan. Deliveries to China in the coming years will not grow as fast as we would like because of the slowdown in economic growth of China. Russia may also supply gas to India, but for the moment there are obstacles for the implementation of this project, despite the fact that our country could provide supplies from Western Siberia, Anna Kokoreva said.
– If this project is implemented, Russia will significantly increase its supplies to the Asian region, and it can rightly be called the world leader in the supply of energy resources, – she concluded.
As technology develops, one can expect that the relative share of hydrocarbons used in energy production will gradually decrease, while hydrocarbons used in chemical industry will grow, said Finam expert-analyst Alexey Kalachev.
- Whereby hydrocarbons in the energy sector will continue to dominate for a long time. At the same time, significance of their different types for the energy sector will change: one can expect coal to go to third place, oil to the second, and gas will lead as the source of energy, – he believes.
Russia has the largest confirmed gas reserves in the world - it accounts for almost a quarter of the world's natural gas reserves.
– If over the next 50 years breakthrough in production and use of hydrogen is not happened, Russia due to its natural gas reserves can become the main supplier of energy resources at the mentioned by experts terms,– says Alexey Kalachev.
Also, in his opinion, China may have opportunities in alternative energy, because today China occupies a leading place in investments in this sector. Moreover, China is actively investing in development of science and education.
For several years, China has been the world leader in the number of patents registered for the year, having overtaken both the United States and Japan in this indicator, – explained Alexey Kalachev.
Analyst IFC Markets Dmitry Lukashov, in his turn, doubts the ability of the United States to take the first place in the supply of energy resources.
– Oil production in the United States with great difficulty reached 9.3 million barrels per day. For this, even a shake revolution was required. At the same time, domestic consumption of oil in America is slightly less than 20 million barrels per day, and this country is the main net importer of oil in the world, - he explained.
In Russia the situation is something quite different. To the present moment the hydrocarbon production constitutes about 11 million barrels per day, and about 7 million barrels of which goes abroad.
– Since new large oil fields have not been found anywhere in the world for a long time, I believe that for many years Russia will be a leader in global, oil energy. At least until the alternative of oil is invented, - concluded Dmitry Lukashov.
Since 2002 Global Energy Prize is presented to the world’s greatest scientists by Russian President Vladimir Putin at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). According to Izvestiya, this year the tradition will continue. Among the winners of the past years there are the American Arthur Rosenfeld, known for advanced development of smart energy-efficient buildings, the Japanese chemist Akira Yoshino, who invented the lithium-ion battery, the creator of the unique RD-180 rocket engine Boris Katorgin, and the author of the blue LED Shuji Nakamura.
Full version of the article is available by the link: http://iz.ru/news/721376